The Top 5 Forecast Killers (And What to Do About Them)
Sales Managers: Are you tired of getting blindsided by missed forecasts?
It’s not just soft deals and red herrings—forecast inaccuracy usually starts further upstream. If your team isn’t actively listening, asking the right questions, and deeply qualifying opportunities, your forecast is already in trouble.
Let’s break down the top 5 forecast killers and how to eliminate them:
1. Slippage
If deals are constantly shifting close dates or changing pricing, that’s a red flag. Opportunities that move their close date or deal value more than three times should be marked as at-risk. It’s a sign of uncertainty—either on the buyer’s side, the seller’s, or both.
How to fix it:
Track close date and value changes in your CRM. Coach your reps to requalify deals that slip more than once.
2. Oversized Deals
We all love the big logos and headline deals, but statistically, opportunities more than 3x your average deal sizeconvert at much lower rates and take much longer to close.
How to fix it:
Be realistic. Don’t let outliers skew your forecast. Flag large deals for additional scrutiny or consider weighting them lower in your forecast model.
3. Stalled in Stage
If a deal has been sitting in the same stage for too long, it’s likely going nowhere. Buyers who are serious tend to move quickly once they’re confident in the solution.
How to fix it:
Know your average time-in-stage for Closed-Won deals and flag anything exceeding it. Reps should either progress the deal or move it out.
4. No Decision-Maker Access
If your rep isn’t speaking with someone who can sign the contract, that deal isn’t real. You can’t forecast what you don’t control—and you don’t control anything if you’re not at the decision-making level.
How to fix it:
Coach reps to map the buying committee early. If there’s no decision-maker access by mid-stage, downgrade the deal immediately.
5. Early-Stage Opportunities in Forecast
Deals still in the first stage of your sales cycle are not forecast material, no matter how confident the rep sounds. Optimism doesn’t close deals—progress does.
How to fix it:
Only include deals in the forecast that have demonstrated consistent movement through your sales stages.
Bonus Killer: Poor Discovery = Poor Forecasting
Here’s the deeper truth: most forecast problems start at the top of the funnel. If your reps aren’t actively listening, asking high-quality questions, and truly understanding the buyer’s problems and decision process, they’re guessing. Without clear insight into the buyer’s needs, urgency, budget, and authority, forecasting is just wishful thinking.
How to fix it:
Invest in discovery skills. Teach your team to slow down, ask better questions, and listen more than they talk. Great forecasts come from great qualification.
Tighten up on these 6 areas, and you’ll dramatically increase both your accuracy and your confidence in the forecast.
Coach these points regularly with your team—and don’t hesitate to cut loose the half-baked deals that are just taking up space.
